The First Trade… Good to the last drop.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up slightly Tuesday held a test of the morning’s 2156.50 bias-up signal. Three times. Each test reacted down to test the 2148.75 bias-down signal, deeper and deeper. The third time was least charming, sliding through the afternoon to 2136.00. And that gained traction, exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low, then entering the final hour lower. Only 3-minute RSI was decisively oversold at the low, although 1-minute RSI was on the cusp.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging has momentarily pierced positive territory twice, most recently attacking this morning’s 2147.75 bias-up signal to within 2 ticks. But yesterday’s 2143.50 cash session close keeps attracting price back down to it.

If, then…
Potential for retesting last week’s ~2169.00 high, let alone “unfinished business above” at 2175.50, depends on continuing to hold tests of 2138.00-2139.00 support. The problem is that the continued tests are chipping away at support. And now yesterday’s traction is mandating morning trending attempts, which chips away at support further. This is payrolls week, a high-profile report that is reliable for influencing price action as much before as after its release, beginning with today’s pre-open ADP report. “Wreversal Wednesday” would not be unusual in that context. And it may be the only path up, let alone for avoiding a much more bearish picture.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2148.75 would be likely to trigger the 2147.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2142.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2136.75 would be likely to trigger the 2138.00 bias-down signal.