The First Trade… The hangover.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction followed a morning dip that had recovered to trigger the afternoon’s 2066.75 bias-up signal. The knee-jerk reaction fulfilled the 2271.75 bias-up target and attacked Tuesday’s 2273.00 high. The next hour was exactly different, plunging 29 points to 2243.00. Even before retracing the final hour’s bounce, sellers had gained traction from exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low, and the proxy window trended down to fresh lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing back from Wednesday’s late dip settled into a relatively narrow, directionless, choppy range between 2251.00-2257.00. The upper-end is essentially this morning’s bias-up signal. It was being tested again when the BOE policy statement (unchanged) triggered a drop back to the range’s lower-end. And slightly lower, soon piercing under 2250.00.

If, then…
Yesterday’s lows probed twice under Monday’s 2247.00 prior lows, and managed barely not to close below them — a 2 point margin by the cash session close, and 5 points at the futures close. That prior low was itself the product of testing “lower prior highs,” so returning to it suggests that it will — repeat: will — break lower. Eventually. Meanwhile, price remains in the 2273.00 interim high’s orbit, which keeps open the door to retesting it. But that door must be entered almost immediately to avoid oversold RSIs at 2243.00 sucking price down into a multi-session pullback targeting 2215.00 and 2205.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2258.50 would be likely to trigger the 2256.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2253.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2244.25 would be likely to trigger the 2246.75 bias-down signal.