The First Trade… Holding up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open gapped down to attack Friday’s 1996.00 lows, which held. But it wasn’t much of a test, so the rubber band wasn’t stretched enough for a snap back up. But the balance of the session did trend up to 2007.00, retracing 61.8% of the gap down. All but one timing window printing a higher high.

Overnight action’s new info…
The reward for holding a test of Friday’s low was to fill the gap back to Monday’s 2009.50 close, if not also to probe Monday’s 2015.00 high. Tuesday’s rally extended to 2009.50, where a surge attacked 2012.00. Reactions down under 2006.00 recovered to retest 2009.50, which have reacted down again to 2006.00.

If, then…
Holding a 61.8% retracement is often “equilibrium.” Trending attempts are likely in one direction, and then in the other, each being very convincing before reversing again. Late-afternoon tends to allow a more successful attempt. That template happens to align well with this afternoon’s FOMC events, with the policy statement being followed by Yellen’s quarterly Q&A.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2012.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2009.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2006.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.