The First Trade… Holding on.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up on the FBI’s Clinton news formed a “session-long rally” setup. It was less reliable for having formed over a weekend. But intraday timing windows complied, anyway, with all but one probing above its prior timing window’s high. The exception was the final hour, which dipped 5-1/2 points from attacking 2125.00. Rallying 10-1/2 points through to test 2130.00 could be dismissed for barely probing fresh highs while the position-squaring window had begun lapsing.

Overnight action’s new info…
Gapping back down slightly at the Globex open extended through the afternoon’s mid-day “lower prior highs” defined by 2123.50, and into the late pullback’s consolidation at 2121.25. The drop was fully retraced to retest 2130.00. Another reaction down is now attacking 2123.50.

If, then…
Continued compliance with Monday’s “session-long rally” would probe higher this morning, if not actually trend. The next higher attractions 2134.00 and 2138.00. But not gaining traction yesterday requires gapping up to launch any durable trend. So, rallying without gapping up would be likely to reverse down this afternoon. Neither gapping up nor rallying could repeat the overnight pullback, but probably not hold support at Monday’s mid-day “lower prior highs” that already held overnight. So, a pullback would more likely target 2118.25, and possibly 2113.50 before suggesting yesterday’s rally is actually reversing down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2121.25 would be likely to trigger the 2123.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.