The First Trade… Holding back.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
The rally’s next higher objective at 2080.50 was met to within 2-3 ticks. Each of Tuesday’s timing windows probed a fresh session high on the way to a 25-point gain — 31 points when including Tuesday night’s initial drop to 2048.00. The rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour’s high, and then also trending to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 window.

Overnight action’s new info…
Dipping immediately at last night’s Globex open has extended down to 2069.50. Its reaction is testing 2075.00 as resistance, which is essentially yesterday’s noon hour high, and still indicating a gap down.

If, then…
Gaining traction yesterday suggests the rally will resume this morning, even if the open were to gap down — so long as the gap isn’t under yesterday afternoon’s 2072.00 bias environment low, which could instead invert the bullish signal to bearish. Having tested last Monday’s highs, trending up this morning above yesterday’s highs would all but confirm the ongoing decline has ended. But the most bearish scenario should be limited to a test of 2059.50. And there is no bearish scenario until this afternoon if the open has resumed rallying.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2077.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2073.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2071.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.