The First Trade… Holding pat.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to 2153.25 isolated the overnight probe under Thursday’s low down to 2135.75, after the overnight probe had neutralized the required retest of oversold RSIs at Thursday’s low. Friday’s session had trended up through the afternoon proxy window’s 2167.75 high, then pulled back to 2160.00 — into the chase session close, and out of it, extending down to 2156.75. The rally nevertheless gained traction for its effort, having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and barely entering the final hour at a higher high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Rallying out of Sunday night’s open has pierced Friday morning’s high up to 2164.00. Dipping back down greeted Europe’s opens at 2157.75. Reacting up hasn’t resumed the open’s recovery. But just fluctuating around Friday’s 2160.00 cash session close hasn’t validated Friday’s late drop, let alone extended it.

If, then…
Friday’s late drop originated too late to be predictive. It was also too shallow within 3 minutes of the cash session close to be predictive. It did extend to levels that would have been relevant if printed earlier in the session. Friday’s late drop wasn’t rejected immediately last night, and perhaps not durably. But it wasn’t yet extended, which separates any new price action from the drop, and keeps the door open to that new price action being to resume Friday’s rally.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2153.00 would be likely to trigger the 2155.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2161.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.