The First Trade… Holiday high.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s retest of 2192.00 support had held, as its test had held Tuesday morning. It hasn’t actually been probed since being exceeded Monday afternoon, which put into play 2220.00. But even the holiday’s seasonal bullishness couldn’t offset the evaporating volume, limiting strength to only attack 2202.50. More “unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2204.25 as price firmed into a positive close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday night’s initial dip back down to 2197.50 was recovered to attack 2202.50 into Europe’s opens. The resistance held until Thursday morning, which broke higher to new highs at 2207.00 before 1:00pm close. Thursday night’s action didn’t extend higher, but its reaction down has held 2202.50 as support.

If, then…
The 2220.00 target is essentially the only unfinished business above. It provides a safety line of sorts in case of another attempted downleg. Interestingly, so does Monday night’s 2203.00 “new Globex trend extreme.” It requires intraday retest, and only attacking it to within 3 ticks does not qualify. Today’s early close typically makes today the year’s least liquid sessions. So, getting a toehold above any unfinished business could marginalize sellers for the day, allowing the balance of the session to drift higher. By the same token, neutralizing any unfinished business without maintaining its recovery through a relevant window could drift back down relentlessly, to and (on the way) through 2192.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2205.50 would be likely to trigger the 2204.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2200 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. PROGRAMMING NOTE: THERE IS NO AFTERNOON BIAS DUE TO THE EARLY CLOSE.