The First Trade… Very important update today.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s “session-long rally” setup succeeded at producing each of its required elements, i.e. all but one timing window probed its prior timing window’s high. Gapping up above prior highs offered a highly-reliable early entry to capture almost all of the first hour’s 15-point first hour surge, which fulfilled the 2068.00 objective and touched its room for noise up to 2072.00. The next higher objective at 2080.50 was barely attacked to 2077.25, which reacted down 5 points into the close. But the one timing window not probing higher was the afternoon bias environment, which prevented the rally from gaining traction for its effort.

Overnight action’s new info…
The rally resumed with little delay, attacking the 2080.50 objective, which is this morning’s bias-up signal. Surging to 2084.50 reacted down into Europe’s opens and consolidated at 2078.50. The rally resumed and extended to fresh highs within 1 tick of this morning’s 2085.75 bias-up target, now reacting down to 2082.50.

If, then…
So, is this time different? The past three weeks began with failed recovery attempts. Tuesday’s was no less convincing, rallying steeply throughout the day to test resistance. Tuesday’s attempt is offering something new — extending higher overnight. This was expected, as follow-through is normal following a session-long rally. More so, it maintains a steep slope, which we’ve long expected to characterize a valid recovery. It’s now threatening to invalidate the widely watched Head & Shoulders pattern, which I’ve noted wasn’t valid. And after the Friday-Monday hibernation, the wide intraday ranging appears to be back on-track.
      [So sorry for the length this morning, but there’s a lot…]
What if this time isn’t different? Gapping up is the only credible start to a durable rally, since Tuesday’s rally didn’t gain traction for its efforts. But trending up overnight can invert to trending back down from the open, if the open were to hold a test of relevant resistance. Otherwise, Tuesdays breakout is in position to be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. That would require at least one more higher close, and probably extend to new highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2076.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2082.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2088.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2085.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2091.50.