The First Trade… “Ineffectual” pessimism no more.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s slide had started sliding sharply into Friday’s expiration open. Its quick retest down to 2123.50 was reversed back up. Extending through the balance of the session retraced back to Thursday’s 2137.00 futures close, settling back at Thursday’s 2135.00 cash session close. Positive territory was avoided, in yet another session to be limited in some way by “ineffectual pessimism.” No unfinished business was left outstanding below.
Overnight action’s new info…
That’s a twist. Not Sunday night’s opening surge that attacked 2140.00. But its complete retracement, which avoided negative territory. Avoided negative territory, eked its way back up to 2140.00, and then surged to 2147.50 through Europe’s opens. “Unfinished business above” at 2145.50 was neutralized. The surge has been consolidating back down to 2143.50.
If, then…
Ineffectual pessimism, meet optimism. Is it effective optimism? Friday was the fourth consecutive session for its high to be labeled as pessimistic, somehow stopping short of resistance or not exploiting an opportunity to extend through it. Not yet reacting down intraday has qualified each instance of pessimism as ineffectual — not so much regardless of the next session’s reaction down, but because the next session’s reaction down either held support or recovered. Ineffectual pessimism doesn’t ensure resolving up, and that resolution may be only an obligatory break higher that soon reverses back down. Ineffectual pessimism is gone, as the overnight optimism suggests the pattern is ready to resolve. If post-open sponsorship doesn’t launch a bigger rally leg, then its reaction could retrace back down to recent lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2143.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2140.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2139.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2135.50 bias-up signal.