The First Trade… Just a dry-run?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open wasn’t plunging from 2043.00, so the likely alternative was a recovery. The morning’s bias-up extended through its target, triggering the afternoon’s bias-up which probed its target up to 2068.50, The rally gained traction at the last two timing windows. That didn’t prevent signaling a retracement back to the 2060.00 area, and meeting it into the futures close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging supported by 2060.00 eventually began firming. That steepened into and out of Europe’s opens, probing yesterday’s high by 1 point up to 2069.50. But only briefly, as its reaction down has attacked 2060.00 to within 1 point.

If, then…
Was the overnight rally a harbinger of intraday follow-through, or did it fulfill the follow-through? Having gained traction, the rally need not resume immediately or aggressively Tuesday. But any post-open dip should be brief as the morning is still likely to trend to fresh highs. Gapping down under the prior afternoon’s 2059.25 low (which is also the morning’s bias-down signal) could invert Monday afternoon’s traction. This continues to be a risk only because its a pattern established by the prior two weeks’ initial recovery attempt. A lot depends on a second consecutive rally day, which would make new highs likely, and likely soon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2058.00 would be likely to trigger the 2059.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2065.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2069.25 would be likely to trigger the 2067.50 bias-up signal.