The First Trade… Last likely window for down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Pessimism was glaringly absent Monday. Gapping up to just under Friday’s 2187.50 high and then extending through it eventually touched 2196.50. An interim 6-1/2 point dip was recovered along the way. But there was otherwise no bearish WedEX influence. The indicator didn’t invert, which means that the distributive influence it had identified originally was already absorbed. The reward was to close above 2192.00, which was the room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00, and which signals that the rally is extending to 2220.00. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2199.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s futures close had reacted back down to touch 2192.00, but only momentarily. The intraday rally soon resumed and extended up to 2203.00 well before midnight, fulfilling the intraday upside target that was left outstanding. Complexity to the rally has created a “new Globex trend extreme” which requires eventually retesting its high intraday. Meanwhile, consolidating narrowly for several hours wasn’t impressed by Europe’s opens, and price soon began dipping. Still a couple of points above yesterday’s late high, the pullback is now testing 2198.00.
If, then…
Absorbing the bearish WedEX and putting into play 2220.00 don’t protect against corrective dips. The seasonally bullish Thanksgiving holiday doesn’t protect against a pullback either, it only inhibits. And that’s not until this afternoon. Which makes this morning the last and likeliest opportunity for a natural correction. The opportunity is greater for having entrenched further upside with the new upside target, and the new Globex trend extreme’s required retest to help recover from its reaction down. It’s also interesting that the overnight high tested and held this morning’s bias-up target. But the overnight higher highs also help to expend selling pressure before it can start damaging the chart — so long as the open isn’t back within yesterday’s range, which would isolate the fresh highs to the overnight, and could point down sharply.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2194.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2197.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2199.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.