The First Trade… More, or less.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Rejecting the overnight probe above 2124.25-2125.00 was likely to launch a downleg back to the prior low. But Tuesday’s plunge from its 2125.00 open was much more productive than that. The morning’s 2111.26 bias-down target was fulfilled, along with the prior low’s retest objective at 2105.00, and the long outstanding 2095.00 objective. The latter was probed down to support at 2091.00 where a bounce to some degree was likely — it eventually attacked 2109.00. A hold-long was indicated at the close, with a pullback limit of 2104.00. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low, along with the next lower objective at 2182.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The rally never touched 2109.00, let alone exceeded it. The 2104.00 pullback limit was tested almost immediately. The drop extended relentlessly until touching 2095.00 — and this morning’s 2094.75 bias-down signal. Choppy ranging gradually firmed, and now has surged, testing 2104.00 as resistance
If, then…
Not dipping back under 2104.00 would have enabled Tuesday’s hold-long.to reach 2111.25, then the 2115.00 and 2121.25-2122.00 areas. They could still be met, if today’s open were to reject the overnight probe under 2104.00 as yesterday’s open rejected its overnight probe above 2125.00. Otherwise, the overnight low’s retest down to oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2091.00 low would be likely. So would an extension down to 2082.00, with room for noise down to 2077.50. Trending or any aggressive move would become more difficult as the afternoon’s FOMC statement nears. Anxiousness ahead of its likely hawkish statement, or in reaction, could be followed by a relief rally for having the event become history..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2104.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2100.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2098.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2111.25 would be likely to trigger the 2109.50 bias-up signal.