The First Trade… A little more, a little less.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
PLEASE NOTE: I’ve been trying to resolve bandwidth issues that began overnight, so please accept my apologies if chaRTroom and recordings are not clear. Thank you.
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s FOMC statement was greeted soon after a noon hour sell signal’s sell signal under 2006.00 had met its 2001.50 target. The satisfied selling pressure cleared the path to a bullish reaction that tested targets at 2018.25 and 2022.25. A last-minute sell signal triggered under 2019.00 and its 2016.00 target was met at the close. WedEX triggered an active bullish signal. The session was a breakout, being the first fresh high close above a multi-session range. However, buyers did not gain traction for their efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
Fresh highs were soon probed up to 2026.00. A pullback to 2019.00 was recovered to 2026.75 into Europe’s opens. Consolidating there eventually resolved down. And down. Way down, testing 2006.00 as support. Its reaction is currently testing 2012.00. The overnight high is a “new Globex trend extreme.”
If, then…
Gapping up is the only credible path to immediately resuming the rally. That seems unlikely, given the overnight slide’s recent momentum. The requirement to retest the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” might help attract price higher intraday, but not necessarily at the open. Leaving the upside attraction outstanding would help WedEX produce its bullish bias Friday afternoon. If not for the new Globex trend extreme, gapping down under 2006.00 would have suggested yesterday’s high was an anomaly. Gapping down under 2006.00 would still be more vulnerable to extending down this morning. But invalidating or even inverting yesterday’s bullish signals will require rejecting all of yesterday afternoon’s rally, back through its 2000.00-2001.50 origin.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2006.00 would be likely to trigger the 2008.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1999.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2001.50 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2012.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.