The First Trade… Lots of chop, little drop.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Rallying overnight up to 2168.50 didn’t ensure any higher highs, especially since the 2168.00-2169.00 area has an almost daily pattern of rejecting rallies. Thursday opened flat and then fell further down to 2153.50. A 9-point bounce was retraced entirely before the morning ended. But the next bounce extended into the final hour, up to 2167.50. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour’s high, but no other traction was gained..

Overnight action’s new info…
.Reaction to post-close earnings from AMZN and GOOG was isolated to NQs. ES was more inhibited by the coming BOJ policy statement. Flat-to-lower ranging blipped-up to 2168.00 on a fat-fingered Yen trade, and its cover triggered a 10-point spike down to 2157.50. Volatility persisted, albeit narrowing the range centered around 2161.50

If, then…
Greeting Friday’s open at or above 2168.00-2169.00 remains in touch, if not actually in-play. Friday Factors could enable it being the first among 4-5 prior instances in the past week to extend high. Probing Sunday night’s highs up to 2175.50 would still be vulnerable to reversing back down, especially since Thursday’s rally didn’t gain traction. Not gapping up could still probe fresh highs, and would be more vulnerable to failure. The only bearish path must gap down.  We’ll be monitoring for a new trend high close, which has predictive value on Fridays..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2158.0 would be likely to trigger the 2160.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2171.25 would be like to trigger the 2169.00 bias-up signal.