The First Trade… The lower-end.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s intraday drops each bounced sharply, and each bounce failed. Only  one probed a fresh intraday high, retracing the drop from 2141.25 that was triggered by Draghi’s comments. That one resolved down deepest to 2126.50. Two more made lower highs resolved down, and the session ended at 2135.00. Newly created “unfinished business above” at 2141.50 lies under the previously created objective at 2145.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially trying to bounce again was cut short quickly at 2138.50. The balance of the night has trended down in an orderly series of lower lows and lower highs. A 4-point bounce from 2128.75 is now retraced entirely, hovering a couple of points above yesterday’s lows.

If, then…
Thursday’s bounces weren’t the first to stop pessimistically short of resistance in recent days. That’s potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, and it has proved bullish recently, so the same bullish resolution is still getting a benefit of the doubt. But the waiting period isn’t indefinite, and it’s pent-up buying pressure can become irrelevant if expiration isn’t exploiting it already soon after the open. Finding support at lower levels to launch a bigger rally would not be unusual — except for expiration, which is often single-minded in its intraday trending. Regardless of gapping down, trending up from the open remains possible, and still likelier, but also necessary to avoid potentially trending down into the weekend.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2133.00 would likely avoid triggering the 2130.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2127.75 would likely trigger bias-down.