The First Trade… Lying in wait.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Recovering from sharply lower overnight lows didn’t held Thursday morning trigger bias-up, despite testing the bias-up signal. And only ranging choppily throughout the morning didn’t prevent the afternoon from triggering bias-down. The overnight attack on the decline’s 2082.00 target to within a couple of points had made it likely to be probed if ever revisited, and Thursday afternoon probed it by a couple of points. A very late bounce to a couple of points back above 2082.00 was enough to avoid “hold-short” although oversold RSIs accompanied the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late bounce initially firmed, and eventually attacked 2087.00. The impending Employment Situation may be responsible (finally) for inhibiting trending. Hovering into Europe’s opens has since dipped back down to within 3 ticks of yesterday’s 2079.75 low.
If, then…
If Friday’s Employment Situation was influential Thursday, then it caused pessimism. That can be bullish from a contrarian perspective, by discounting an unfavorable reaction and stealing sellers’ thunder. That wouldn’t preclude there being an initially negative knee-jerk reaction, especially if the room for noise under 2082.00 down to 2077.50 hasn’t yet been touched. The target meanwhile remains in-play. Regardless, the weekend’s impending illiqiudity can cut either way. Maintaining a gap up above Thursday afternoon’s last relative high at 2088.00 could set a very bullish tone for the day. But the current trend is not a recovery’s friend. It’s difficult to reverse eight consecutive days of probing each prior session’s low without another fresh intraday low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered before an Employment Situation report.
PROGRAMMING NOTE #1: There is no Saturday Review this weekend, so we’ll review the bigger picture during this afternoon’s Market Wrap… PROGRAMMING NOTE #2: Market Wrap will be done during the session’s last half-hour, specific timing TBA.