The First Trade… Did the music stop last night?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s flat-to-lower open extended down nearly 7 points to 2156.50 before reversing up. The slingshot extended through Thursday’s highs to attack 2172.00 into the noon hour. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, supported by 2166.00. Friday produced fresh highs despite Thursday’s rally not having gained, so its correction was left outstanding. A new trend high close was barely avoided, and no traction was gained.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night started optimistically. The open gapped up to a new high at 2174.00. Reacting down to 2170.00 filled the gap back to Friday’s futures close, stopping 3 points above Friday’s 2167.00 cash session close. Recovering to fresh highs at 2177.50 formed a “new Globex trend extreme” that will require eventual intraday retest. But that didn’t stop trending back down to fresh overnight lows at 2168.50 — still above Friday’s cash session close.

If, then…
Did the music stop? There might be one or two chairs left… This time. Probing fresh highs Monday would be no different than if done Friday afternoon, and remains extra vulnerable to being rejected aggressively. And the consequence is now greater.than if Friday had yet probed high enough to encounter counter-trend sponsorship. That template may be developing already. The requirement to eventually retest last night’s new highs wouldn’t prevent extending down sharply this morning — especially if the probe above Friday’s highs is isolated to the overnight. But holding or recovering positive territory would be attracted back to the overnight highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2171.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2173.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2175.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.