The First Trade… Needs to get choppier.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Sunday night to fresh lows had met the correction’s next lower objective at 2181.00. An overnight surge attacking 2206.00 had itself corrected deep enough for Monday’s opening 10-point surge to quickly attack 2209.00. That was the end of Monday’s surges. It was the end of Monday’s rally, altogether. Retracing back down to attack the open’s lows around 2199.00 was quickly recovered up to a 2203.50 buy signal. But it was the opposite of an inflection point, testing it for 45 minutes within a narrow 5-tick range, finally blipping-up to 2206.00 after the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s late lack of momentum undermined the momentum of bouncing off of session lows. The late blip-up to 2206.00 was not extended. Narrow ranging finally dipped at Europe’s opens, but only to attack 2200.00. That got nowhere — nowhere new — and now 2206.00 is being retested.
If, then…
The likely resolution to Sunday night’s surge remains higher. More so for not reversing Monday’s post-open extension intraday. And now all the more so for not reversing it overnight. But the sequence at this stage requires at least another higher high to maintain its uptrending characteristic. And that’s just to maintain the trending. The optimal version of a higher at this stage would resume the rally — not as another surge that expends near-term energy, but as a seemingly relentless push higher. The objective is to probe new highs above the anchor at last week’s high, presumably including the outstanding 2220.00 objective, regardless of how much or how little delay there is before then reversing back down. The overnight fluctuation isn’t choppy enough to rely on any new trending this morning. And while reversing down would still be likely to recover, that could be from sharply lower levels around 2181.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2209.00 would be likely to trigger the 2207.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2203.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.