The First Trade… Nervous energy.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Bouncing up to 2175.50 Wednesday afternoon gained traction, but in the least impressive way. The bias environment lapsed at the noon hour’s upper-end, but not necessarily above it, which would have been optimal. Instead, it was left to the final hour’s entry above the bias environment’s high, confirmed by the proxy window trending higher. All of which developed under the morning’s 2176.25 high, which remained un-probed through the close as price dipped to 2172.00. WedEX triggered an active bearish signal.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially firming and gradually rallying probed Wednesday’s highs up to 2178.25. That was retraced entirely to greet Europe’s opens back down at 2172.00, which held. Wednesday’s highs are now being tested up to 2176.50.

If, then…
Thanks to having gained traction, trending up overnight isn’t required for resuming the rally this morning. But it would help. And until actually resolving up, there’s vulnerability to repeating Wednesday’s gap down. The minimum bullish objective is at least to retest Tuesday’s highs, and notice that the gap back to Tuesday’s 2177.50 close was tested already overnight. So, despite no gap indicated currently, gapping down anyway could be all the more bearish for having neutralized that attraction above. But simply avoiding a gap down should be more bullish than bearish, at least until the bearish WedEX’s influence begins tomorrow afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2179.75 would be likely to trigger the 2177.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2174.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.