The First Trade… New relative highs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s opening surge held a test of the 2041.50 bias-up signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. Reversing back up from within 3 points of the objective wasn’t surprising, but not reversing back down again did break the pattern. In fact, that required the ultra-rare occurrence of no-bias trending recovering the 2046.50 bias-up target when the morning’s bias environment lapsed. The afternoon extended higher to 2058.50 before a late dip to 2052.00. Buyers narrowly avoided gaining traction decisively.
Overnight action’s new info…
The rally has extended almost relentlessly. A 5-point pullback from 2063.00 into Europe’s opens offered , and now a 4-1/2 point pullback from 2069.25, have not damaged the trend. The 2066.75 high following the Employment Situation report is being probed. But last Sunday night’s 2071.50 “new Globex trend extreme” remains as yet untouched.
If, then…
Relentless overnight trending often reverses direction intraday, especially when greeting the open at a prior extreme or support/resistance. Breaking the obstacle through the open then often extends the overnight trending intraday. Gapping up above prior highs have only a brief window to attract post-open sponsorship. The immediate past three sessions each extended their gaps up for 45, 40 and then 15 minutes before reversing back down. There is little assurance of another gap up not repeating this pattern, especially being indicated to open at the renewed bias-up target. That little assurance is two pieces of “unfinished business above” — the 2071.50 new Globex trend extreme’s required retest, and an eventual new trend higher close for the current uptrend’s Friday high close.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2066.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2062.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal (it’s 2069.00 renewed bias-up target is being tested overnight).