The First Trade… No excuses.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The most bullish aspect to Thursday’s session was that it didn’t extend Wednesday’s negative FOMC reaction. Similarly, the most bearish aspect to Thursday’s session was that it fully retraced the negative reaction. FOMC news had been greeted at 1901.00-1904.00, and its knee-jerk reaction up was reversed down sharply to 1965.00. Rallying overnight enabled Thursday’s opening surge to touch 1902.50. Reacting down to 1966.00 was recovered enough for the afternoon to repeatedly test 1892.00 resistance.
Overnight action’s new info…
Having been inhibited through the afternoon, reaction to AMZN’s post-close earnings miss easily held the afternoon’s 1877.00 low. Surging before midnight pierced Thursday morning’s low up to 1993.25. Its reaction down to 1880.00 was recovered entirely into Europe’s opens, hovering since then just under the highs and supported by the 1893.50 bias-up signal.
If, then…
The 1913.00 potential remains outstanding, and the open is in proximity of fulfilling it quickly. Trending up overnight and well above yesterday’s lows makes fresh highs seem like the product of momentum, but actually it’s a probe above the range’s upper-end. And a lot of momentum has been expended just to get here, so extending into a breakout is difficult. So, fresh highs will be vulnerable to reversing back down, whether upon exiting the open or exiting the morning’s bias environment. Outlasting those windows could at least marginalize sellers for the day, and possibly extend up to 1924.00. Rejecting fresh highs — especially after testing 1913.00 — could extend back down under yesterday’s lows. Downside risk to NOT probing higher high at the open should be moot so long as bias-up is triggered.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1887.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1893.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1901.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1898.50 bias-up target at 10:30 to renew the bias-up signal.