The First Trade… Not (yet) backing down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Enough chipping away at 2035.00 support had essentially required probing fresh lows down to 2025.00-2027.00 Thursday. Gapping down was retraced to 2039.50 before resolving down to fresh lows at 2022.00. Firming into the noon hour extended choppily higher to test 2036.00 during the afternoon bias environment. That’s where the cash session closed, despite the last hour briefly touching 2038.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s futures close had firmed back up to 2038.50. Globex action resumed the rally up to 2046.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. Ranging back down to 2042.00 has tried once to break lower, and is now trying again.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s rally gained no traction for its efforts — although it would have, had its last surge been 1 minute earlier. So, extending higher this morning relies on maintaining a gap up above prior highs. That’s essentially 2045.50, which is serving as resistance overnight. Otherwise, trending down this morning would be more likely than to simply back-and-fill and to wait for the afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence. How the open resolves a test of 2045.50 may determine whether we see 2033.00 and 2025.00-2027.00 again this week, or just 2056.00 and higher.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2040.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2043.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2045.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2051.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2048.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.