The First Trade… Now, THAT’S painful.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Probing a new “Globex trend extreme” Sunday night wasn’t maintained into Monday’s open. Opening back under Friday’s 2067.00 high began trending down, printing a fresh low in each timing window except the noon hour. We were prepared for the likelihood of beginning a correction immediately, but the intraday drop never became painful enough to seem complete — two no-bias environment and sellers didn’t gain traction. Meanwhile, previously “unfinished business below” remained outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s downtrending resumed without delay into the Globex open. Friday morning’s 2048.75 bias-down signal’s required retest was fulfilled by midnight, and held the lower-end of a shallow consolidation. Breaking sharply lower into Europe’s opens has extended down to test last Friday’s opening bar down to 2037.75.

If, then…
So, does this overnight decline qualify as a correction’s painfulness? Sort of. The global crowd is feeling it, but we don’t yet know whether it will bleed into the intraday. Gapping open TO a prior extreme after trending relentlessly overnight can often launch a reversal — that’s what happened at this level last Friday. Nothing precludes this morning from duplicating a recovery from gapping down to support. But the alternative is to trend down under Friday’s low, probably a lot.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2044.50 would be likely at least to test the 2048.75 bias-down target as resistance. Exiting the open above 2051.00 would be likely to recover the bias-down target through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2039.25 probably trends down sharply.