The First Trade… Oh, what a night.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Surging momentarily at Thursday’s open was followed by consolidation through the morning and noon hour. The afternoon bias environment finally broke out of the funk to fill the gap back to Monday’s 1942.00 cash session closing equivalent. The final hour surged into and out of the futures close to within 2 ticks of its potential to 1952.00-1953.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrowly flat-to-higher repeatedly attacked 1953.00 closer and closer. Its break was underway already into Europe’s opens. And it kept going, rallying along with Crude Oil to attack 1969.00.

If, then…
The rally’s good news is that it’s unlikely to end today. Sliding immediately and relentlessly would leave a gap outstanding at the open. The rally’s bad news is that it’s vulnerable to sliding immediately and relentlessly. Testing 1952.00-1953.00 need not peak there, although it did until Europe’s opens approached. Without a consolidation above 1952.00-1953.00 there is no requirement to recover its eventual reaction down. And not much motivation, not ahead of two days of illiquidity careening into a 2-day, 82-point rally. The rally’s nightmare would be to open well under the overnight high, making its gap easier to fill sooner, with plenty of time to attract counter-trend sponsorship.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1959.50 would be likely also to exceed the 1958.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1956.50 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target at 10:15.