The First Trade… Oh, what a night.

fProper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s test of 2059.50 resistance was reversed down to 2049.00 into Monday’s open. That range essentially defined the session. A quick surge attacked 2059.00 before reversing almost as quickly to 2048.50. Recovering the opening surge reversed down again, ending the day unchanged at 2054.00. Buyers gained no traction, and three opportunities failed to launch a rally. Meanwhile, sellers also failed to exploit even greater opportunities to resume the ongoing decline.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s session had ended by reacting down from attacking 2059.00. The Globex open immediately resumed the reaction, plunging to 2048.00 and retesting Monday’s pre-open and intraday lows. Identical to those earlier drops, price both reversed up abruptly, and also extended to attack 2059.00. But this time was different. Europe’s opens followed a pop-up to 2062.50, and then soon followed by a bigger surge to 2068.00. Eventually touching 2069.25 has reacted down, gradually back to 2064.00 and now aggressively to attack 2060.00.

If, then…
Monday’s bias environment exit was borderline for gaining traction, no matter how decisively the final hour was entered. We knew at yesterday’s close that resuming the rally this morning would require gapping up. And we suspected that would happen since sellers had failed to exploit intraday vulnerabilities. Gapping up must be maintained and preferably also extended to prevent reversing back down post-open — especially having met 2068.00 resistance after ending yesterday’s session unchanged.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2066.00 would be likely to exceed the 2063.25 bias-up target at 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2061.00 would be likely to trigger the 2057.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2054.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.