The First Trade… Oh, what a night.
. Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open had recovered overnight up to 2104.00-2105.00 after dropping 10 points under it. The overnight dip had stopped short of retesting Tuesday’s 2091.00 low as required by its oversold RSIs. The open’s rally attempt only reached 2106.50 before reversing down into and out of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. The afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down target was pierced by 1 tick, taking RSIs oversold again. Its reaction attacked 2100.00, but only briefly as the close trended back down to attack the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially bouncing was resisted upon testing Tuesday night’s 2095.00 support as resistance. Suddenly plunging extended down to 2084.00. The probe under prior lows was a singular leg, so not a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require intraday retest. RSIs diverged positively on its retest, helping to launch a recovery that has probed more than 6 points into positive territory attacking 2099.00.
If, then…
Did last night’s drop to 2084.00 satisfy the decline targeting 2082.00? Similar to the room it has down to 2077.50, resistance above it begins at 2084.50. Its test last night would qualify. If retested, the objective would target the noise range’s 2077.50 lower-end. In any case, isolating the probe of fresh trend lows to the overnight window — as is currently indicated by having recovered into positive territory — could begin a multi-session momentum reversal back up. Just in time for tomorrow’s Employment Situation report. But anything more than retesting yesterday’s oversold RSIs at its low must be avoided, if not negative territory altogether.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2098.00 would be likely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2104.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2101.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2091.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.