The First Trade… Old reliable is getting old.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s close above the 2215.00 objective (basis Mar, 2220.00 basis Dec) was not rejected Thursday. The afternoon bias environment’s 2246.00 high stopped short of the next higher objective at 2147.25. Its reaction down originated too late to seriously threaten closing under the morning’s 2231.50 low, and anyway held a test of 2237.00. The close bounced 6 points up to 2243.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
A third consecutive relatively narrow overnight range? Firming only a couple of ticks up to 2243.50 was eventually retraced down to 2239.75 ahead of Europe’s opens. Congestion there has now bounced back up to 2243.50, essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close.

If, then…
Exiting any timing window above 2147.25 would target 2257.50, and either could be satisfied intraday. There is otherwise no “unfinished business above,” certainly not any requirement for a higher close. That’s especially interesting today, since rallies can entrench themselves by closing at new trend extremes on Fridays. So, while a new high close today would be bullish, not exploiting the proximity would be bearish — especially if either 2147.25 or 2257.50 were tested intraday before closing negative. That’s generally the only bearish scenario, other than temporary dips. Gapping down would not qualify for launching more than a temporary pullback, perhaps even limited to the open before recovering to retest yesterday’s highs..

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2244.25 would be likely to trigger the 2242.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2238.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.