The First Trade… Opening volley.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening surge stopped short of testing the pre-open reaction to payrolls, which had touched 2161.50. It even stopped short of filling the gap back to last Friday’s 2160.00 area close. The restrained optimism may be potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but not immediately. Potential bullishness didn’t prevent a steep morning dip down to 2146.00, or an afternoon dip down to 2138.00. But at least the second dip was retraced into Friday’s close. More restrained optimism, perhaps, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s recovering up to 2151.25 had reacted down into the close at 2145.50. Sunday night’s open gapped up to test 2153.00. Choppy sideways ranging persisted through Europe’s opens, but eventually started trending to fresh highs at 2157.50.

If, then…
Last week’s intraday — mostly early — rally efforts stopped short of prior highs. If that is ultimately bullish from a contrarian perspective, then its ultimate resolution should begin aggressively. Like this morning’s open gapping up above Friday’s highs, as is currently indicated. Testing last week’s highs but then reversing down through the open would suggest their test had held. And the range’s lower-end would be a likely objective of the failure, with equal opportunity to break.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2157.50 would be likely to exceed the 2156.50 bias-up target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2162.25. Exiting the open above 2153.00 at 9:45 would be likely at least to trigger the 2151.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2148.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.