The First Trade… Optimism being restrained.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday’s backing-and filling had begun abruptly by gapping down to several points to 2155.00. Extending further down tested relevant support back to Thursday’s ~2147.50 close. The Rosh Hashanah holiday limited the sponsorship available for trending, so support held. Twice. Pessimism was the excuse for two timing windows reacting up shallowly through the close to attack 2156.00 — “ineffectual pessimism.” No unfinished business was left outstanding, and a hold-long setup was not compelling enough.

Overnight action’s new info…
Barely probing higher and higher highs awaited Europe’s opens, which blipped down momentarily to 2153.00. As if that had cleared the air, price soon rallied further to attack 2160.00. Stopping pessimistically short of Friday’s cash session close has reacted down to attack 2153.00.

If, then…
Despite reacting down so deeply from the overnight fresh recovery high, Tuesday’s session remains vulnerable to resuming the recovery, and much more aggressively than was Monday afternoon’s firming. With participation somewhat normalized, probing above Friday’s 2168.00 high would not be an unreasonable reward for unleashing the pent-up buying pressure. All of which relies on post-open action being higher, abruptly and with limited reaction down, if not also by gapping up. Otherwise, probing negative territory — at all, let alone more than momentarily — could at least probe well under Monday’s low, regardless of its ultimate resolution.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2153.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2156.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2159.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.