The First Trade… More optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open gapped down at or under Tuesday morning’s 2119.00 low, and quickly rallied 22 points to attack Tuesday’s high up to 2141.50. Oh, and Tuesday’s low was probed by 91 points overnight. So, not only was the crash isolated to the overnight, but the intraday exploited it, so sellers were all but marginalized for the day. Bias-down signal and target held the morning’s correction that attacked 2125.25, and the balance of the session rallied to fresh highs at 2166.50. The rally gained traction by entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high and then trending up through the 3:10-3:2- timing window. That didn’t prevent a late corrective dip down to 2156.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s late pullback consolidated relatively narrowly around 2160.00 until midnight. Suddenly surging to fresh highs peaked within 1 tick of this morning’s 2171.00 bias-up target. The rally extended out of Europe’s opens and tested the next higher objective’s 2180.00 area by 2 ticks. Its reaction back down to 2171.00 was retraced by 8 points, but now another reaction down is testing 2171.00.
If, then…
Wednesday afternoon’s traction makes Thursday morning likely to trend higher, often regardless of its opening print. We’ll want that confirmed by there being almost no delay in rallying post-open Thursday, since the next higher target in the 2180.00 area is already fulfilled overnight. The next higher objective would be fresh highs probing 2-3 points above 2184.25. Otherwise, inverting the morning’s bullish influence into a pullback would target the 2167.00 area. Both legs are possible today, in either order — so today’s session would be more bullish if the morning corrects down before resuming the rally, and more bearish if fresh highs were to print first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2174.00 would be likely also to recover the 2171.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, which would essentially next target 2180.00. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be likely to trigger the 2164.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2161.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.