The First Trade… Overnight optimists.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Day-to-day reversals, intraday reversals, and now overnight reversals, each had begun appearing within the week-long range before Monday’s open. The latter’s appearance — Sunday night’s reversals — warned us not to trust Monday’s gap up. Our distrust proved well-placed, as the 2048.00 open’s extension to 1256.50 was reversed down to 2042.00 by noon. Its recovery to 1251.00 also proved untrustworthy as it was reversed down to 1233.50 into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Initially extending down to 2029.25. Its reaction extended higher to 2041.00 at Europe’s opens. Tumbling quickly back down to 2032.50 proved only temporary, recovering as quickly and then extending to a fresh high at 2043.00.

If, then…
Sellers had not gained traction before Monday’s last downleg broke lower during the final hour. Extending down immediately this morning would require gapping down to fresh lows. Retracing yesterday’s last downleg overnight doesn’t yet prevent gapping down to resume the decline. But it does put that decision to the intraday crowd, instead of it being forced on them by overnight sponsorship — and that makes the setup more reliable. It also presents the opportunity for a “session-long rally” setup. But if the decline is extending, then the overnight recovery should begin melting away now

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2044.50 would be likely to trigger the 2041.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2039.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.