The First Trade… Overnight ‘tude.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s rally offered Thursday’s open an opportunity to trigger a bullish setup. Thursday’s open declined, figuratively and then literally. By only attacking 2070.00 instead of recovering it, the entire morning trended down until printing 2048.50 at noon. Rallying through the bias environment’s exit reached 2066.50 to setup another bullish opportunity. But the final hour slid back down to Wednesday’s 2057.50 lows. Overbought and oversold RSIs were left outstanding at either extreme.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming never gained traction, and Thursday’s final hour slide soon resumed. Ranging narrowly at 2051.50-2053.50 broke to fresh lows down to 2046.25 into and out of Europe’s opens. A couple of big bounces have tried recovering the 2051.50-2053.50 range, which is now being retested.

If, then…
Last night’s lows pierced the upper-end of last Friday’s range. It was only momentary, although prior to Tuesday’s rally that would have been enough to break its support. That premise will likely be tested, along with Friday’s 2045.00 “lower prior highs,” if the overnight lows aren’t compartmentalized. Still, opening above yesterday’s lows may not be enough to reverse momentum up without also trending up quickly. Regardless of the direction, this is not a very comfortable area for the market, so it’s likely to try trending away from it — aggressively, if up — instead of ranging narrowly.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2057.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2055.25 bias-down signal at 10:15, and under 2051.50 would be likely to trigger it. Exiting the open under 2046.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2049.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.