The First Trade… Perking up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open was essentially flat around 2257.00. Thursday night, like Wednesday night, had rallied briefly up to 2261.00. But intraday Friday, like intraday Thursday, had traded only lower. Friday’s low was nearly 3 points higher than Thursday’s, and also satisfied its 2254.00 to within 1 tick. Three days of holiday weekend illiquidity didn’t attract sponsorship for resolving in either direction. But a last-minute surge to 2260.25 greeted the weekend.

Overnight action’s new info…
Last night’s narrow 2-point range has suddenly, and only recently, surged 3-1/2 points to 2261.50. That’s above both Thursday and Friday’s ranges, and above the two overnight ranges preceding them. This morning’s 2261.25 bias-up signal is resisting the surge. It’s also a third consecutive overnight higher high — the prior two were rejected before the open, and now RSIs are diverging negatively on this one.

If, then…
Low-volume environments can form patterns, but none are very predictive. That would apply equally to Friday’s late surge, as it would to Thursday’s opening slide. Today’s open is in position to be greeted unchanged from Wednesday’s close, when a Symmetrical Triangle had just begun breaking lower. If Thursday and Friday were the pattern’s false break, then a relatively larger rally can reveal itself at any time. Delaying it until late-morning for a shallow dip would be possible, but another downleg this morning wouldn’t be appropriate unless today is trending down.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2264.00 would be likely to trigger the 2261.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2259.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.