The First Trade… *Pop* goes the weekend.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
A third consecutive narrowly ranging overnight Globex session was followed by a third consecutive intraday rally that ended above the morning’s highs. The morning held a test of the next higher upside objective at 2247.25 and the afternoon held tests of its higher objective at 2252.50. Intraday patterns targeting 2254.25 defined the cash session highs No traction was gained, but a new trend extreme close on Fridays requires at least one eventual new trend high close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Agreement among non-OPEC producers to limit production triggered a 10-point surge at Sunday night’s open, attacking 2265.00 just 15 minutes later. It was steadily retraced during the next 5 hours, despite its catalyst Crude Oil maintaining its gap up. Except for that round-trip, the balance of price action has resembled the three prior consecutive overnight Globex sessions — choppily fluctuating around unchanged, most recently touching 2151.75. Currently a bounce has recovered again to unchanged at 2254.25.
If, then…
This weekend’s Saturday Review discussed reasons why a multi-session pullback would not be inappropriate to begin today, regardless of whether fresh highs were probed first. I can update that now to say that it remains as true, despite last night’s probe higher. But now that fresh highs have been probed, reversing down intraday would be likelier if they’re isolated to the overnight. Despite its substantial 10-point girth, last night’s opening surge had no complexity that would otherwise have required its intraday retest. It’s interesting that Sunday night’s open didn’t gap up before surging, almost grudgingly moving to discount Crude Oil’s reaction to this weekend’s news, which had gapped up. Similarly, the open’s surge was retraced while Crude Oil continues to hover at its gap up levels. If a multi-session pullback were going to begin today anyway, then compensating for the artificial overnight surge may exacerbate its depth.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2251.50 would be likely to trigger the 2253.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2256.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.