The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE AFTER NOON TODAY, FOR THE BALANCE OF THE SESSION.
Through the prior close…
Rallying into Wednesday’s open and then surging was only able to briefly probe above the morning’s 2283.50 bias-up target. And it was unable to maintain the upward momentum, as the balance of the bias timing window reversed back down to its 2278.50 bias-up signal. Through it, too, although not decisively in time to actually trigger a synthetic bias-down signal. So, extending down sharply only tested the 2270.50 bias-down signal by 2 points, and wasn’t required to also test the morning’s 2265.50 bias-down target. Afternoon choppiness triggered by the FOMC policy statement attempted to break lower, but from above the morning’s low, which makes the pattern distributive and not accumulative. Bounces to 2277.00-2278.00 produced the third consecutive 2275.00 finish.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late bounce’s reversal down to 2275.00 didn’t hesitate extending through it to attack Wednesday’s lows down to 2269.50. Another quick drop tested what had been Wednesday morning’s 2265.50 bias-down target. Later probing under it by 1 point — to within 2 ticks of this morning’s 2264.00 bias-down target — reacted up into Europe’s opens. Its reaction up to 2269.50 was retraced briefly to retest 2265.50, which is recovering again.
If, then…
Three consecutive closes at the same level may seem likely stability, following Monday’s opening plunge from 2281.00 down to 2263.50. But it is actually three consecutive failures to attract strong-handed buyers. That indecision gradually makes another downleg to lower lows likelier and likelier will be required. Already probing lower last night also suggests that another downleg is beginning. There’s still a small chance of holding the retest of Monday’s 2263.50 low, a very small chance. Bank of England releases minutes from its policy meeting, which might be more of a catalyst for volatility than usual. If that volatility is down, then the next lower objective would be to test 2248.50..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.75 would be likely to trigger the 2270.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2262.75 would be likely to also break under the 2264.00 bias-down target through 10:15, and to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2265.50 would be unlikely to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2273.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.