The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sliding overnight into Wednesday’s open had threatened to break under Tuesday afternoon’s 2357.50 lows. Its test held, and so did the morning’s 2356.75 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2366.00 bias-up signal. The morning’s rally stopped ticks short of overnight highs at 2363.25. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. Choppily, as in absorbing a 6-point plunge in reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release, which might have derailed an attempt to resume the morning’s recovery. The outstanding 2366.00 became “unfinished business above.”.

Overnight action’s new info…
Of the possible scenarios I described yesterday for actual action overnight, none of them played out. Not that action developed in any other way. Instead, nothing has actually happened, at all. At least, not until very recently. An ongoing 1-point wide range greeted Europe’s opens, where firming has extended to pierce yesterday morning’s high up to Tuesday night’s 2363.75 high.

If, then…
Although none has played out, the possible scenarios for overnight action are still viable. The likeliest path remains testing 2366.00, and then reversing down from its test. Econ reports and Fed speakers scheduled before the open are capable catalysts for triggering a gap down — no less capable than was yesterday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, whose steep immediate impact makes it all the more a failure for its complete retracement. So, unless the open is gapping down under yesterday’s lows, I’ll be reluctant to short prior to probing fresh highs.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2364.75 would be likely to trigger the 2362.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2358.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.