The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
REMINDER: The ES front-month rolls forward at Thursday’s open to Jun, which is trading at a 3.00-3.25 discount to Mar. So, Tuesday night’s low touched relevant support at 2356.50 (basis Jun, 2359.50 basis Mar). The bias parameters are quoted in Jun… Yet more fresh lows had been probed Tuesday night, to the next lower objective at 2356.50 (basis Jun, 2359.50 basis Mar). Rallying from there isolated the probe under Tuesday’s lows to the overnight, opening back above Tuesday’s lows at 2367.00. But extending another 3 points higher held the bias-up signal instead of triggering it. The balance of the session trended back down to 2357.75 into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last pattern had resembled an inverted Head & Shoulders, which I had dismissed for its undeveloped head and oversold RSIs. Ranging flat-to-higher overnight did attack 2364.00, but that has been reversed to probe back under yesterday’s late lows down to 2356.75. That’s 1 tick short of touching Tuesday night’s low.

If, then…
Are five consecutive sessions of lower lows about to break through six consecutive sessions of lower prior highs? Retracements often test lower prior highs before resuming the trend. That’s usually done within 1-2 sessions. But the last three sessions have been testing those lower prior highs, reacting up only temporarily. And now Tuesday’s night’s low is likely to be probed by a couple of points. Suddenly plummeting Crude Oil has been influential, as has been anxiousness ahead of this morning’s ECB rate decision / Draghi press conference. My Crude Oil targets are still lower, but a corrective bounce should begin by this afternoon. And the ECB event is likely to be benign, so getting it behind us could be a relief — as in relief rally. But look out below if not, and if early selling isn’t easily absorbed.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] NOTE: I’ve lowered the bias-down target, and recalculated the SPX spread… Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2356.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2355.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2354.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.