The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was preceded by an overnight dip had tested 2545.00 and retested it by 5 ticks, warning that sellers weren’t gaining traction for their efforts. In fact, the open had recovered up to 2548.00 from having dipped overnight. Firming a little further consolidated around 2551.00 ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. A brief swing from 2552.00 to 2449.00 and back up again continued improving to close back at Tuesday’s 2553.25 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Not surprisingly, this area has proved once again its propensity for distribution. Price has only trended down since surging into yesterday’s close. Firming 2 points from 2549.50 ahead of Europe’s opens was apparently disappointed and resumed trending down to fresh lows. Now  yesterday’s 2548.00 open is being probed by a point.

If, then…
There was no “unfinished business above” after Tuesday’s session, and none after Wednesday’s session. Today’s open is indicated to gap down, which would create new unfinished business above, had yesterday’s new high close been above all prior intraday highs. But it wasn’t. Rather, it was AT Tuesday’s 2553.25 high, so the gap won’t require being filled. None of which requires extending down, which continues to depend upon breaking under a relevant low. Relentless one-way trending overnight is often vulnerable to losing its sponsorship at the open, so not extending down at the open could quickly become bullish. And if sellers can’t exploit the overnight trending, then a fresh high targeting 2557.00 becomes likely.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2547.75 would be likely to trigger the 2549.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2551.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.