Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday could have exploited a bullish setup that had been created Monday. Monday’s selling pressure kept the session exclusively in negative territory, while holding above 2563.75 key support nevertheless confirmed the next higher objective at 2590.50 is in-play. But gapping up only found sellers again — although the overnight rally had created room to absorb the selling without damaging the rally’s chart. Dipping into Monday afternoon’s range down to 2569.00 remained in positive territory and never gained traction. Hovering at session highs through the afternoon bias environment would be likely to rally through the final hour. But fresh highs only touched 2575.50 before tragedy in New York triggered a reaction back down to 2571.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
A surge soon probed above Tuesday’s highs up to 2577.00. Narrow ranging there started ticking higher ahead of Europe’s opens, and then surged again to touch Friday’s 2580.75 high. Now a brief consolidation is resolving up to new at 2584.00.
If, then…
Last night’s rally suggests yesterday afternoon’s tragedy did derail its late rally setup. Is that necessarily bullish for this morning? Perhaps in compensating for its delay, the overnight rally has gotten ahead of itself. We know three things that make this morning vulnerable to dipping: First, greeting the open with one-way, relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to attracting counter-trend sponsorship. Second, this week already has two consecutive opening dips, which is a pattern. And third, last night’s consolidations were either shallow or brief, both characteristics of impatience. Also relevant is the timing of this afternoon’s FOMC announcement, which could inhibit much more buying before then. Also that gapping up helps to prevent a morning dip from not damaging the rally’s chart. And that reversing down from a gap up above all prior highs would require an eventual retest, which is a tactic rallies employ to conserve and refuel buying pressure. So, NOT trending back down through the open would be likely to extend this morning, but not necessarily, and at least establish an anchor that helps to recover.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2583.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2581.50 bias-up signal at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2577.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2576.00 bias-up signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or lot going on apparently you know what I started yesterday’s market tour I started it but it was Tuesday and I started it with a description of Monday I started it with the description of Monday because Monday had created this setup that had potential to Rally yesterday the set up being that it was a second consecutive close not hired but close above 2563 75 who’s recovery on Friday like the Friday before I put into play 25 9050 just needing confirmation which the prior Friday or the prior Monday did not offer but this Monday did by closing about 25 6375 and did so by only expending selling pressure that is foolish that’s stored energy think we’re that’s like stretching a rubber band sort of not to but still creating stored energy even yesterday’s open up overnight the overnight had rallied when we talked yesterday before the open but what did the overnight rally do it just created room to absorb the Post open selling pressure without that selling pressure damaging the Rally’s chart in fact trending down from the opens Gap up or probing lower in any case it got a little low for a little long so it wasn’t entirely clear that sellers were trapped in that they were isolated in fact the balance of the session despite recovering back to the overnight hi just raining sideways and what if we were waiting for a last our final hour rally opportunity because of that pattern had as I described when we enter the no bias environment environment if it could be spent just hovering like the noon hour had at session eyes then it would be in proximity to just start taking higher into a final hour rally and we did get a final hour taking a higher into the final hour at least when of course there was an attack in New York on the bike path horrible thing it also and just put everybody on their heels back on their heels too as you can see here and look at the one minute what had every opportunity to extend I never got going because right here took awhile to get news disseminated to the rest of us but there had been that attack nobody knew what it was and even when it came out we knew that wasn’t going to be productive in any case what we don’t know or we can assume we can assume or not as simple really doesn’t matter that the rally setup would have been productive if not for the interference even I don’t even go so far as to know for certain that that’s what interrupted the rally set up because of that interference even though there’s been a substantial overnight rally we still can’t make that correlation but we do know though is the rally has resumed or extended at least we know a couple things about the overnight rally we know or several things we know that it has been Relentless one-way Relentless overnight Rally’s it should be noted often are greeted by counter-trend sponsorship at the open cuz we don’t know whether it was yesterday’s last final hour rally derailed that’s that’s what has happened overnight is compensating for the delay by being so extensive overnight even that even if it’s entirely valid and the 2550 Target is absolutely none of that tells us that Post open Action won’t dipnone of that tells us thatscenario in back the most bullish scenarios do take every opportunity available to them to not just conserve buying pressure but to renew it or rip fuel the rally with pullbacks that’s what Monday was about trending down through the session but holding above relevant support expending that sewing pressure refueling buyers creating that stored energy so nothing says that this rally overnight won’t meet the same problem in fact we got fomc announcing its policy statement this afternoon how much more of a rally can develop between here and there with that overhanging so I’m not at this point not until the open I want to see the opening indications at least several minutes out 15 minutes out before before pegging a post open strategy but just so you know don’t be too sure that this overnight rally is insured for a sure that it will extend Post open we also have for instance the last two sessions every session this week so far well that’s just too but still the pattern this week has been for opening dips whether it’s the gap down Monday or the Gap up yesterday dipping at the open theirs that’s a pattern in my work any two consecutive appearances are a pattern that are often followed by a third assurance that it will be but pay attention look out for that and finally if we look at the overnight rally first briefly dipping to touch yesterday’s last hour low than rallying to a new high and consolidating nearly there’s the bicep signal 2576 Irving and support rallying again to to attack the 2581 50 x of Target yeah but this time just a brief consolidation those are two characteristics of impatience so again another element that should have us be prepared at least for the potential that the open is going to be greeted by a different different sponsorship than what we see it then what we seen at the during the overnightso we can get through this and it will be a higher degree of likelihood of extending we can get to 2590 50 today we could get near 2590 50 I head of the fomc consolidate and then and then come back to then come back to the high and fulfill 2590 50 and reaction to need your reaction is wide open buyer’s or seller’s both won’t be marginalized no matter what setup keep your options open know that anything can happen and possibly everything will interesting stuff over night fomc this afternoon keeps it alive last night’s 644 didn’t do anything actually touching Friday’s open 76-80 and we can start giving it back to about him having formed anyway but that’s the only set up in the Odyssey right now to pound really didn’t do much accumulation for at least and probably only a corrective balancebut has to be maintained there today Lily did neutralize the Gap back down to Fridays open and now I can’t say that’s really firming so much as not extending down and still a ways off from its Buy Signal the Euro bounced that is a major break of a long-awaited break under a major major support 1 1760 South still looking at this is just a corrective bounce whether it’s just to fill this Gap or higher and then again which on which on Monday did close above the prior Monday’s high which did trigger of I said no but it wasn’t confirmed by a second cuz they desire closed yesterday that is still the relevant level still need to get out above that same level through two consecutive are closes overnight is dipping it’s not a cell signal it’s not bullish near-term but we can assume some parallel support lines or at least identify them if this is turning the corner if this downtrend lower and lower highs is now turning the corner into a higher high and a higher level than parallelism should be preserved to some degree which puts it slow right about here right about now so just as a guide if that holds back above 8805 would be a preliminary indication of momentum reversing up but the actual signal again would be a close and then confirmation above 8820 88 25 gold gap down yesterday from 6 to 6:50 on Friday so those are two reflections of pessimism which don’t prevent extending down but they undermine sellers and closing back about 12 7750 then since 12:50 and 7:50 would be enough to Signal as much that this was a first attempt at a rally that it’s correction was done overnight that is there is for me but that has to be recovered as well it still is or back to being the Line in the Sand silver up as well up as well and back to it’s bounce and threw it testing 17 1705 still running into resistance at 17 undermining it’s 1650 can’t be overridden here not but that is literally by isolating Friday Monday and Tuesday by gapping up maintaining the Gap up above this interim High yesterday morning’s high but that is what has to happen in order to reverse Long Pond afternoonbut ithas no business slowing as well it’s excessive optimism and finally and by the way I’ve had helped Along by AP eyes released yesterday he is over for today both being greeted from a position of strength natural gas compensating for it’s too late and probing lower Monday by gapping down and trending down throughout the day yesterday that’s not going to form a bottom today I’m in the bottom but it hasn’t gapping up leaving the Gap back down to yesterday’s clothes outstanding will want to be filled alright but I was recording hear any questions posting the driver then I’ll see you there before they open again it should be interesting day morning and afternoon good luck today
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