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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Front-month rollover. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Front-month rollover.

By Rod David | March 9, 2018 - 7:36 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
This week’s burning question was whether the corrective bounce from last Friday was ending. Holding multiple tests of its 2730.25-2732.75 (basis Jun, 2725.25-2727.75 basis Mar) limit was one factor. Another factor was daily comportment with the bearish distributive template. Thursday morning’s probes of fresh highs repeatedly failed, as did an afternoon surge to fresh highs. The President’s press conference left no time for resolving the pattern before the close, which attacked the afternoon high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppiness throughout the night has probed 5 points higher, 5 points lower, and is currently unchanged from yesterday’s close. Initially, two separate probes of fresh highs attacked 2748.00 and then 2750.00 (basis Jun), retracing entirely in the interim. The second retracement turned negative for awhile, testing 2739.00 before midnight. Flat-to-higher ranging since then is now trying to probe back into positive territory.

If, then…
[All price references are now basis Jun, which is the front-month, trading at a 5-point premium to Mar]… Despite probing higher highs, the distributive behavior continues. At least, earlier last night, when two probes of fresh highs were more than fully retraced. This behavior can repeat into higher and higher highs — specifically 2758.00 or 2770.00 — before the rally from last Friday can start being considered something more substantial than a temporary correction. Meanwhile, the distributive behavior need not repeat at all before the correction ends, perhaps by already exiting the open under last night’s initial ~2741.50 lows. So, the higher objective(s) will probably be in-play, possibly for today, if the Employment Situation report reaction hasn’t yet affected the market bearishly through the open.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary levels aren’t applied ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Posted in members-only, Pre-market Tour, S&P, The First Trade