The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Almost literally: make, or break.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s drop had already probed fresh lows for the week, which hadn’t happened the two prior sessions. Thursday’s open gapped down 27-30 points to probe under Monday’s 2698.00-2699.00 lows. A post-open bounce finally ended upon touching Monday’s low. and the balance of the morning trended down to 2664.00. Another bounce to 2690.00 also resolved down to 2643.00-2644.00. That met the next lower objective under 2680.00 at 2652.00. Closing under it put into play its next lower objective at 2627.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Trying both to resume the drop, and to reverse it, and failing at both. Thursday’s drop extended without delay to fulfill its next objective down to 2626.00. Consolidating eventually broke lower and quickly touched 2617.00, but it was recovered almost as quickly as it had formed. This time, consolidating again around 2626.00 reversed up sharply into Europe’s opens and touched Thursday’s late 2643.00-2644.00 lows. It also reversed back to 2626.00. Now another bounce is testing 2639.00.

If, then…
Several important points about price action since yesterday’s close. First, it has met the next lower objective. Second, it is in proximity to yesterday’s range. Third, it has developed exclusively under yesterday’s lows. The first two points allow an Isolation setup to form, by opening back above yesterday’s lows and avoiding negative territory through the open. The third point must be invalidated first, by probing back into yesterday’s range well before the open. An alternative recovery path would continue being governed by pessimism and retest the overnight low, but maintain or re-establish the range when the bias environment had lapsed. Friday Factors could squeeze shorts into the weekend. Nevertheless, dangers loom. Isolation setups can be as bearish as they would have been bullish, if they fail to hold within the prior day’s range. And Friday Factors can cut either way, so buyers can become increasingly inhibited the longer a recovery is delayed. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. So, almost literally, make or break. Closing under 2652.00 again Friday would confirm the next lower objective in-play, a retest of the crash’s lows at 2509-2511.00. Support along the way would be influential, but likely only temporary.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2639.75 would be likely to trigger the 2640.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2652.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.