The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another gift to sellers?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s new high close at 2559.50-2560.00 didn’t prevent an overnight plunge to 2542.50. Thursday’s open was greeted back up at the morning’s 2550.75 bias-down target, but its 3-4 point blip-up plunged again. The post-open selling was finished before the morning bias environment signal triggered at 10:15. The balance of the session trended back up. Relentlessly. Every timing window recovered to a prior relevant high. Ultimately, the gap back up to Wednesday’s close was filled by Thursday’s last cash session bar. No “unfinished business below” was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging down to 2559.50-2560.00 was suddenly shocked by a Senate budget vote that made tax reform likelier. The reaction was overwhelming, surging 11 points to attack 2571.00. That was soon probed by another point, adding complexity to form a “new Globex trend extreme.” But not for long, as quickly reacting down has extended lower for the balance of the night, to as low as 2563.75. That’s essentially a 61.8% retracement of the surge.

If, then…
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. Yet another chance for the two-week long tradition of greeting opening enthusiasm with a collapse? Despite trending down since the overnight surge, a gap up is still indicated. Wednesday’s 2563.75 “unfinished business above” is fulfilled. A “new Globex trend extreme” has been replaced overnight, but yesterday proved that doesn’t prevent an interim reversal. Actually reversing into negative territory will be done very quickly, if at all. Otherwise, holding a test of “lower prior highs” would marginalize sellers for the morning. As for the afternoon, here comes WedEX. And the proxy for adjusting it at Thursday’s open inverted the signal from actively bullish to passively bearish. Its influence begins this afternoon and extends through Monday morning. Will that be affected by the past 48 hours’ unusual multi-directional changes and their unusually wide swings? Probably. But the effect may be to exacerbate WedEX’s influence. Trending up into the weekend is not at all assured, and this might prove to be the understatement of the week.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2566.75 would likely trigger the 2563.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2561.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome this is just an amazing Market it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour it is expiration we have I don’t blink we have a passively barish wed x barish means down and always see his up or possibly because the wet X influences Friday afternoon its influence is irrelevant until Friday afternoon and then Monday morning it is triggered at Friday’s close it has nothing to do with Thursday Thursday can have something to do with it in fact this Thursday did and that there is the wet X triggering Wednesday actively bullish because of the clothes Bubba multi-session range essentially there’s a couple of the bells and whistles and this case actually is pretty simple because there’s bells and whistles weren’t even involved but the session did create the possibility for adjusting it inverting it by proxy of Thursday’s open Thursday is open is the only proxy there is two adjusting the wet X and the wet X did get adjusted by proxy at Thursday’s open by gapping Down Under the level whatever level that was in this case it was essentially 22:57 2575 that had created the bullish FedExthat doesn’t matter that was also recovered eventually as it was yesterday back above the same level that indicated by proxy at Thursday’s open that the way I could be adjusted too late there’s only one proxy for adjusting the Decks that is so it’s really possible that the recovery is gone so far as to this point again the original decks because of Wednesday’s close even keeping the door open because of Wednesday’s pattern because of Wednesday’s pattern haven’t kept the door open to that proxy in that box of being successful and I’ll go even one step further in the last relative low the last relative low that is identified by the support test that was overlapped during the opening 15 minutes that almost went so far if not went so far as to create and actively barish with X passively is where we’re at because ultimately the probe has failed at the open in 15 minutes so far as the break back under the last relative lowand actually that would have been that would have qualified on a normal basis as actively we’re going to give you every opportunity it’s not a timing signal timing Windows signal it’s a bias signal not a by ourselves signal it’s not inflection it just tells us the kindwhat happens this morning is your relevant to the afternoons wed x which we will be looking for any send the confirmation of barish behavior anybody see any anybody see any signs of berries behavior on the horizon here’s an interesting one we can look back at the last couple weeks we’ve talked about it nearly every day and that is the tradition the pretty well established Tradition now of course the market hates Traditions the last too long the tradition of wrapping up taking that enthusiasm and collapsing it basically collapsing opens opening and fousey azzam here’s some enthusiasm the last of through the clothes that’s okay that’s what overnights four claps that claps that it’s not great for the best reflection of it but right away pick it up with another another example and even on Wednesday that tradition was honored coming from a new high and coming from where we had already determined as a Monday’s close that this pattern was trying to resolve in fact what happened well the next day didn’t do it but since then of course price has been all over the place since Monday’s close told us that this I’m going up Trend was a bad to resolve it certainly has changed its characteristics all of them will see because here it is again here’s Wednesday’s Gap up collapsed and now today what do we have indicated today another Gap up because last night the US Senate approved a budget bill that or a budget that paves the way to tax reform presumably that’s 61.8% from Wednesday morning I told us that yesterday was likely to be like unlikely to extend likely to be recovered nothing nothing about that spoke to the velocity of that recovery that it would be the same day but in any case we shouldn’t be surprised at the recovery because the context said that direction would not change yet to down or at least not to trust the plunge extending so in fact that’s now neutralized 6375 that new guy that had printed before Wednesday’s open that’s moot now that’s still needed to be in still needs to be retested intraday but it’s been replaced by a new new Globex friend extreme there is complexity here there is complexity here overnight so they don’t need to be tested at some point not necessarily today but we’ll see get a opening surge back to it add that to the mix neutralizing the attraction to that new club at strand extreme by retesting it Post open and that doing that real quickly of course and then that tradition of collapsing the opening enthusiasm and suddenly we could be looking at a situation like this that’s the case because like Wednesday gapping up and then collapsing held lower prioritize this wrapping up to a new high gapping up today will be will be so collapsing still has that from a new I still has a tough path down to get under lower prioritize and there’s a lot of sport in here again 5660 this is a Friday Friday different with two days of a liquidity fast approaching its expiration don’t forget afternoonthere is basicallyending today above any prior high at all not until the open passes through the open get through the morning and still maintain above prioritize and we can give we can marginalize sellers at that point possibly but not until then alright so could be awesome morning too short to sell opening strength or reach out to the other night I or something that will identify at the open or just before remember yesterday set up no reason why that can’t duplicate which was to sell an opening bounce if we got it there’s no Assurance of getting it to 5375 but if we got it we knew in advance that that would be very opportunistic to sell into similar setup the market loves Traditions Twilight and patterns alright let’s look at other markets real quickly which has a head and shoulders sort of played at really just played out in one day that’s not typical but already reversing to test the neckline of that pattern and now rejecting that still need at least one new little close have or trading down to 88 3435 all the way back down to the Lowe’s almost this could be the day again could be the day for that what was the setup that I described yesterday since Wednesday had pretty much used up all the correct of balance for this cell signal to keep that in play before yesterday gapped up we have Gap up and close back at the Gap up created an opportunity for that to be an island of sorts it’s not actually behavior and that would be indicated this morning literally by gapping back down to Wednesday Wednesdays close that’s what I did to it it’s actually won’t be done if it’s if it’s not done but it has the opportunity to take a cab down to Wednesday’s close and resume the decline which I would assume would resume of the Vengeance the Looney backing off of its resistance the pound got lower overnight to one 3107 that’s so close to our objective here but it still doesn’t fill the gap still need to get in there at least test for the first time the session that has that Gap and then the Odyssey dipping a little bit back to overnight shipping back down to basically the expected pull back limit before reversing up so there’s a test there’s a test gold and silver both hovering above signal not the most decisive or convincing but in any case needing a second consecutive today to confirm it’s not be but will still give it every benefit of the doubt on a second or whatever level whatever the overnight Behavior maybe it’s just trying to fill the Gap at which it has done back to Wednesdays close silver more substantial and so has supported 1711 that’s been tested but could also use a second consecutive are close is confirmation 5314 didn’t trigger it didn’t fail it either either but it did neutralize that was outstanding from Tuesday’s closeso really needed this morning to literally Gap up to and through yesterday’s highs in order toprivet the bicycle actually did trigger didn’t do that dip back down to test lower prioritize the sale of her eyes test that Wednesday at tested and then some so is this whole recovery in Jeopardy it kind of is it kind of is that was a on Wednesday either an anomaly or warning shot across the bow an anomaly if the prioritize recovered which yesterday tried to do and despite probing considerably it’s by signal only without testing it so warning shot across the Bell if that attempt to prove it an anomaly fails so in a minimum to keep alive the bullish Canario today needs to close back above Wednesday’s close its back about 1:53 at a minimum that’s not optimal optimal is to recover back into positive territory but we will give 153 benefit of the doubt that it has absorb the has absorbed the drop that the anomaly is last night’s drop otherwise remember that one 5118 area that becomes the target crude oil similar setup and this is a week ago now that was a little different because not just hold the prior high and react app from it of course a little bit more difficult by the way which is trading at a premium to November which were rolling forward from butt it’s at the fluctuate crude oil crude oil differential between the front month or to the front month is fluid on the day and the first couple days actually a roll over so anywayovernight but it’s clearly not maintaining Wednesday 5455 today it’s just not usual undermine yesterday’s closing about yesterday’s high reaction would have been more boys or more reliable extending higher overnight anyway or at least for mebut just be a littlethe second container of our lives would go a long way today had otherwise. Any questions going to put some of the chart room where I’ll see you before the open this could be a very exciting and very opportunistic open if you’re not here for the open I know a lot of by Traders don’t like that where we happen to have an edge on early setups and an edge by the same token of identifying winderley setup is not indicated but it is indicated often and so if you’re around for the open I try to make it worth your while alright Saturday review tomorrow by the way no Saturday review next weekend so if you have stocks don’t forget Saturday with you tomorrow good luck today
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