The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Around the block.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 2720.25 open was flat with Monday’s futures close. Both were above Monday’s cash 2716.25 session close, which had been touched twice overnight. Interim bounces had tested the 2726-2727 target created by Monday’s close above 2711.50. The open pierced fresh highs up to 2729.00, and reversed down again, early enough not to trigger the bias-up signal. The morning’s bias environment exit only got to within 3 points of fulfilling an offsetting test of its 2710.25 bias-down signal. The afternoon bias environment got a few ticks closer. Both dips reacted up, settling at 2723.50. The cash session closed 3 points lower, essentially unchanged from the opening print.
Overnight action’s new info…
Price action since yesterday has been volatile, not narrow, but still undecided. Dipping into Tuesday’s close had triggered a pattern with potential down to 2716.25. It was barely attacked to within 2 points. Firming into the close extended into the Globex open up to 2725.50. Its reaction down to 2721.00 was recovered entirely, and higher to attack 2728.00. A 10-point drop has bounced 6 points off of 2718.00 to now test 2724.00, essentially unchanged from yesterday’s cash session close.
If, then…
While yesterday afternoon’s low provided a sizable bounce, it was contained within the session’s previous range. This reinforces the range’s boundaries for containing noise, by making it more difficult to attract sponsorship for trending out of the range. Greeting the open within the range can still trend quickly to try gaining some traction, which is already difficult ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC events. The range is wide, so an early trending attempt that doesn’t trigger a bias signal still has plenty of room for reversal before paralyzing anxiousness sets in. But volatility after the policy statement and during Fed Chair Powell’s first quarterly Q&A should help to compensate for the interim constraint.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2627.00 would be likely to trigger the 2725.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2724.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2720.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2719.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2716.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.