The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Backing down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Rallying sharply early Monday night had retraced all of Monday afternoon’s 43-point collapse up to 2658.00. Its reaction down to 2638.00 defined the trading range that would last through midnight, and intraday Tuesday — albeit widening along the way to 2635.00-2666.00. No traction was gained for the effort, especially when trending became unlikely during Zuckerberg’s congressional testimony. There was enough optimism to try breaking higher, but the overnight highs held.
Overnight action’s new info…
Probably in reaction to reports of an impending Syria strike, the first Globex move attacked the range’s lows down to this morning’s 2640.25 bias-down target. And then stopped for a long time, hovering optimistically short of yesterday’s intraday lows. Ranging narrowly up to 2644.00, for hours and hours, and well after Europe’s opens did eventually blip-down momentarily to 2637.00. That proved to be a warning shot, as price has collapsed to 2626.00, well under yesterday’s lows, presumably still anticipating intervention in Syria.
If, then…
Having gained no traction for its efforts Tuesday, extending the rally Wednesday required gapping up. That’s not happening. Meanwhile, the likelier scenario of retracing Monday night’s recovery is playing out. Greeting Wednesday’s open under range’s lows isn’t in itself bearish, unless maintained through the open. Any trending likelier earlier rather than later. Price action can become inhibited ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. But even its impact may be muted unless containing a glaring surprise to influence price action. Traders may again be distracted by Zuckerberg’s second congressional appearance. Between his likely adaptation after yesterday’s round, and today’s crew trying to one-up yesterday’s inquisitors, promises to offer more gotcha’s on either side of the witness stand.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2637.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2640.25 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2644.00 would be likely at least to trigger bias-down.