The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Calm again, before another storm?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s narrow sideways range could have resolved either way, despite already probing 14 points under Friday’s 2642.00 close. Monday’s plunge tracked the only bearish template in operation at the open. While it fulfilled this leg’s likely objectives of retesting the recent 2796.00-2698.00 and 2585.00 lows, they weren’t required the same day. The late bounce from 2552.00 touched 2585.00 as resistance before backing off 5 and 10 points into the cash session and futures closes. Maintaining its break confirms the next lower objective in-play is 2509.00-2511.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
It’s almost the opposite of yesterday. Monday’s late reaction down from 2585.00 was eventually retraced, and then probed up to 2589.00. But only momentarily, as the balance of the night has been sideways in a 10-point range around 2585.00. Flat-to-higher, slightly, as 2590.00 was just touched, but its reaction is heading back down to 2585.00. The description nearly matches yesterday’s, albeit probing slightly higher instead of slightly lower.
If, then…
The objectives of Monday’s template didn’t have a timing element, and neither does the next lower objective. But duplicating Monday’s plunge on Tuesday would introduce a likelihood of extending down aggressively, perhaps even tracking the 1987-style crash template. The overnight range’s restrained optimism would be bullish intraday if the opening 15 minutes of volatility becomes less restrained and more optimistic. That’s credible, but not the likeliest resolution. Meanwhile, immediate post-open weakness could quickly retrace all of the post-close gains, and still be targeting a probe under yesterday’s lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2593.25 would be likely to trigger the 2587.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2576.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.