The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Carving out a “cushion.”
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s gap down and follow-through from Friday’s 2822.00 close only pierced the pre-open low. Both of those lows had otherwise stopped optimistically short of touching the earlier 2733.00 overnight low. But simply trading in negative territory post-open had put into play a test of at least 2722.00. A substantial bounce was possible first, and in fact, the morning bounced 30 points. But not a durable bounce, as fresh lows were probed during the noon hour. The afternoon plunged almost another hundred points down to 2635.50. There was still time for a 60-point bounce to retrace almost entirely down to 2645.50 at the cash session close. Futures settled more than 43 points lower at 2602.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending down 43 points after the cash session close into the futures settlement might seem like a lot. “Hold my beer,” said Globex. Another plunge down to 2529.00 subtracted another 116 points by midnight. Already rallying sharply into Europe’s opens then extended to within 2 points of yesterday’s 2645.50 cash session close equivalent. Its 30-point reaction down to 2573.00 is now bouncing.
If, then…
The plateau at December’s 2688.00 “lower prior highs” was probed from above and broken through that same session’s close. This requires so much selling pressure that it is highly unusual. The next lower prior highs is from early November at 2583.00. It was probed overnight by at least 50 points, but recovering to close above it today would still indicate a low is forming. Which conforms to the timing pattern created by Monday’s expanded follow-through, for a lower low Tuesday to launch a multi-session rally. The overnight lows don’t require being retested first, but the earlier drop could soften the damage a post-open drop might do, having room down to 2509.00 while still being able to recover (if tested early enough). Typically during a multi-session decline’s Tuesday, not already trying to rally into the noon hour isn’t helpful to bottoming… P. S. Bitcoin hit my $6100 target last night, probing it briefly by about $200 around midnight, so I have begun re-buying several cryptocurrencies.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2599.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2621.00 bias-down target by 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2627.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2638.00 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
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