The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… More chop.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s intraday action didn’t deviate far from the choppy overnight action preceding it. Not far above it, nor below it. The ranging was wide wide enough to represent divergent opinions, by attempts to trend in either direction. But the trending attempts were contained within the range. A late break lower from the afternoon’s narrow range was recovered like the morning’s false break lower. Both recoveries also stopped short of reversing into breaks higher.

Overnight action’s new info…
Not for lack of trying — albeit the attempts haven’t been very powerful — but yesterday’s range remains intact. Flat-to-lower ranging initially drifted down to test and retest 2601.50 through midnight. That’s still several points above yesterday’s lows. Then rallying into and out of Europe’s opens has extended to fresh overnight highs at 2620.00. And that’s still under yesterday’s highs.

If, then…
Potentially, yesterday’s two failed dips are pessimism that will prove bullish from a contrarian perspective. The other basic ingredients are there: weekend illiquidity fast-approaching, recent drop already discounted a lot of negatives, relevant support holding tests. But there’s not an indefinite time allowed before exploiting the setup. Rallying would have been acceptable already Wednesday afternoon. Not yet rallying early Thursday could be because the decline has already resumed into the long weekend. Or, worse, not trending early at all is still vulnerable to remaining range bound. Meanwhile, despite having all of the potentially bullish ingredients, there is a degree of difficulty to rallying — so much congestion from yesterday lies just above the close, making bias-up more difficult than usual to trigger.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2620.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2625.25 bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2611.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2597.00 bias-down signal.