The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… D’tour to d’top.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
There already has been no bullish reason to revisit 2563.75, but there’s no particular timing to its eventual break. Wednesday illustrated two or three more instances of that dichotomy. An overnight dip to 2562.00 greeted the open higher to isolate its test. A post-open plunge to 2555.50 was recovered to at least overlap 2563.75 at 10:15 and 10:30, avoiding a clean break. Rallying through the morning’s bias environment touched its 2571.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Nevertheless, the balance of the session trended back down choppily to retest 2562.00, and the close again at least overlapped 2563.75. WedEX wasn’t triggered, but could signal by proxy if Thursday’s open were to gap beyond either end of Wednesday’s range.

Overnight action’s new info…
Is the decline taking a detour back to the top? A brief blip-down attacked 2562.00 before reversing back up to Wednesday’s 2571.50 high. And higher. Europe’s opens were greeted by a pullback from testing 2574.00. The 4-point dip recovered to attack 2576.00, but it’s now pulling back 3 points to test 2572.50 as support.

If, then…
An eventual downleg under 2563.75 is already likely for having revisited it from fresh highs and then testing and retesting it. Isolating its tests within a timing window (or at least not decisively broken through a timing window’s exit) has avoided triggering the downleg — a break that must still be maintained through a close. Meanwhile, continually bouncing off of 2563.75 may have formed an obligatory bounce. Albeit a brief bounce, but potentially attacking or probing last week’s highs, before the bounce’s weak origin causes the effort’s failure. That leg would likely start from gapping up above prior session highs and trending higher through 2574.00-2577.00 to trigger a short-squeeze. Last night’s rally is position for that setup. Caveat: NOT exploiting the bullish setup would be as bearish as it could have been bullish. And gapping up probably forecloses on the alternative bottoming pattern, of a higher low at 2560.00, because that would necessitate rejecting the overnight rally. So, maintaining the gap up through the open would be bullish for the day, and NOT maintaining it could be bearish into and out of the weekend.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2577.00 would be likely to exceed the 2573.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2572.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2568.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2566.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday where is this week on it’s Thursday it’s time for Thursdays Morning Market to her the week’s pretty much 2 weeks busiest economic calendar is today not only high-profile lot of high-profile stuff but simultaneous high-profile stuff in among those reliably influential stuff so like the Philly fed business Outlook survey it’s the only Regional fed survey that actually has a reliable track record of any track record for influencing price action used to have reliable track record for influence items some Post open stuff there’s some Post open items that if there has been a reaction to the pre open items is likely to be duplicated for whatever reason to the Post open at items so we’ll keep that in mind as those times come up Post openBloomberg consumer index Bloomberg is irrelevant 9:10 and then this afternoon what about the output T5 6375 even before this week told us Saturday that were in a reversal basically that 6375 is going to give away it’s going to give way to a deeper pull back when that’s all of these bounces just to be clear I even though the dips have trended down consecutively lower lows and lower eyes and that does not at all mean that that there can’t be a bounce above some of those prioritize before resolving down this can be a leg that is at least to some degree right now for example of 61.8% retracement would take us back up to 7985 actually 8025 is the calculation just for a simple 6118 there’s also room to fill the gap back to last Wednesday’s close extreme that’s not depicted on the chart that also would want to be would want to be retested if possible of a given got into the orbit if coming into its orbit so if something gets started sequence this week or over the past 5 days gapping down gapping down lower and lower yesterday didn’t do anything signalsor developments yesterday under God 6375and then mildly embarrassed by closing at 6375 not Axel a decisively recovering it but into the clothes the clothes is a timing window and so the test of 6375 was contained to the timing window just as all the other test of 6375 have been although yesterday morning 6375 not recovered through the time in Manila 1015 6375 was not decisively broken it was being overlap just like at the close so 6375 hasn’t broken tube in a position to break repeatedly in position we know that all these tests that are chipping away at its support it’s going to break but if sellers can’t get it done here they need to regroup but buyers have more rope to hang themselves which means of Bounce or they need to attract reinforcements while they’re not attracting reinforcements last night last night sellers rather than resume the afternoons pull back or the pull back actually from yesterday morning’s by its environment rally rally back up to what had been the bias down signal 7150 reacting back down into the clothes I can’t say that I actually tried to resume the decline at the Globex open but it fluctuated back down to the afternoons low and then it’s been pretty much a singular single-minded that is one way overnight rally and a rally to relevant level so above yesterday’s high by midnight or back to it by midnight what are the two levels for this morning rather than bounce is going to develop it can’t just develop from a shallow dip opening dip it can’t just develop from shallow opening strength really has to get out of not just yesterday but above prioritize prior session highs windows at least just to get to within the orbit of the attraction to the Gap back to Tuesday’s close. 78 7778 actually so 2574 is the first indication and then 77 clear 2574 2577 do they open and suddenly the rule of two gaps starts coming into play which is not a the most reliable indication or signal or setup but very often gaps will be filled in so if one is being filled or at least when it within its orbit and on track to be filled the prior Gap if there is one which is in that instance is likely to be filled as well or as they call them patterns a break in the pattern and some sort of what we would expect to be only temporary corrective bounce and a corrective Bounce by the way if you think that means we can’t get to a new I actually this can be the first leg down and still be corrected back through its origin so we can get an entire first leg down that recovers to a new high and yet that leg to the new high as a correction so that the second down they can begin interesting concept not mine Glenn Neely neowave but right now question the focus is on the open the focus is on whether 2574 or 2577 or both can be recovered through the open or even going to beback under 25 70 having probed above 74 haven’t tested and retested 74th Ed isn’t holding about 25 70 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility then not only will that attempt to Gap up and maintain we have failed and the maintaining maintenance of the Gap up clearly being rejected but even more so having bounced to the minimum 2574 having bounced into position to actually produce a bull adapter and then stopping short of actually producing the outcome is a setup that having had the opportunity to be bullish but rejected would be as bearish as it would have been bullish and well that was one bullish scenario to Gap up above prioritize gapping up above prioritize is a Bushnell at least near-term bullets corrective bounce polish there was another scenario scenario which would have instead dip initially 225 60 just enough not to be too shallow just enough to test a lower priority I overlap it and then hold and recover that was another potentially bullish scenario that would probably not an option anymore because the opportunity to Gap up would have to be rejected in order to get 25 60s test and there’s nothing bullish about rejecting the actual attempt to Gap up or the attack attempt to maintain and extend the Gabba alright so either this morning likely in the number 2 spot is rejecting the Gap up and just trending down and probably even though we don’t have any particular timing to the break the eventual break under 6375 breaking under 6375 but just getting too close to the weekend into next week for the support staff to continue holding and yesterday’s to test 6375 that weren’t decisively rejected just narrowly held that should be telling us the next test of 6375 doesn’t old I’ll see you there before the open that’s already underway but we do have remember a multi multi section range that broke lower and wasn’t confirmed for me another multi-session range immediately that broke lower and that’s one to three days we got 5 days of a four-day pattern order that sequence and when that next day today tries probing lower again tries to confirm it usually fails so that would be to not trap shorts we’ll look at that again later the pound bigger test held its pullback limit Friday and Monday on Tuesday and just needs to be confirmed and the euroGuyana in the Yen which is a breakout as well and a little late to the entirely reliable will give it every benefit of the doubt though until it’s until it’s proved otherwise by closing back under Tuesday’s clothes back under 8830 which is being tested your attacked at least overnight Gold Flat after 2 days huge volatility huge volatility and not just threw some otherwise you’re relevant ranges in the context of trending but actually 7750 1280 50 and ongoing relevant range being tested if that pulled back can’t recover doesn’t recover today it probably won’t 1695 mean while still holding his support to similarly or area being tested by these two days if that’s not in recovery mode today it probably won’t the correct of Bounce potential that have been probed in the morning and then didn’t maintain a rejection 5322 through the afternoon so we don’t really have a signal here this could break by the way if it’s going to break it really doesn’t do it yourself any favors recovery doesn’t do it needs to get away from this attraction below and it’s not back yet still that’s the challenge crude oil and having had a couple to do so and not doing so does start to be bullish so there’s really but a couple of sessions and with at least a second session of being able to close lower or being a position to close lower and not that gets even less likely to close lower 56 5665 couldn’t get anything more done and just a correction to the correction limit there shouldn’t be any further delay in the rally 309 wasn’t either and it was after testing and rejecting but at least Tuesday’s was held as support so it’s not being greeted today from a position of weakness good luck today

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