The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Early to rise, again.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s open was greeted by an overnight rally that had probed the 2553.50 prior high by 2 points. The week’s gap up and collapse setup remained intact, as a quick reaction down touched 2550.25. But the 2555.50 overnight high was soon recovered. And held. Two more times, until entering the afternoon bias environment. Reacting back down touched the open’s 2550.25 low with barely 3 minutes before the close. Bouncing 2 points into the cash session close stopped short of a new trend extreme close on a Friday. So, the rally isn’t entrenched, but “unfinished business above” is left outstanding at 2556.75 and 2557.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open quickly added another 3 points to touch 2555.25. Narrow ranging back up to Friday’s 2555.50 high was probed by 1 point up to 2556.50, but only briefly. It quickly peaked, and reversed down gradually. Reversing back down into the open’s range, and through it, into and out of Europe’s opens eventually touched Friday’s 2552.00 cash session close. A 2-point bounce has largely failed.

If, then…
A new trend high close isn’t required, despite Friday’s ample opportunity to trigger its setup. Neither is a new high close prevented, although Friday’s close did suggest at least a new intraday high for the move. But something with some effort behind it. That’s not the definition of Sunday night’s brief 1-point probe. While it did come within 1-2 ticks of “unfinished business above” at 2556.75-2557.00 to neutralize it, it also lacked any complexity. So, a fresh high intraday remains possible, and buyers would be marginalized this morning only if the open were to maintain a break under Friday’s 2550.25 lows.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2551.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2554.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2557.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome back hope everyone had a great weekend it is Monday is October 16th and it is time for the morning Market to her so nothing really going on over the weekend of consequence apparently not of consequence to the market not unless you’re in the Kurdish Market or racking Market or crude oil market and you would think any Market that’s affected by crude oil but this Market is trying to remain oblivious to it all that little more saber rattling just ongoing stuff that the mark our Market as essentially nullified as far as having a detrimental effect I say that somewhat tongue-in-cheek sarcastically and really highlight it today because of the type of action that we’ve been seeing the type of actually saw last night first of all going back to that week-long distributive range distribution doesn’t mean reversal down distribution means from one sponsorship to another it’s too weak or handed sponsorship if it is distribution that resolves up what does that matter why wouldn’t we called accumulation by the week or two handed sponsorship because distribution to weaker and its sponsorship that resolves up resolves down in a different Dora more specific way a very attractive to be short way right now just keep an eye on it really is still being tested because even though Friday’s range developed above that pretty much including new highs it wasn’t a breakout hit it did not include a new trend even if it had included in the 53 and for the purpose of a rubber band and a snap back up because it’s just not getting it done he is expending energy open the door and it really at this stage now that have tipped their hand or sellers have given them this much more rope not arbitrarily a little bit more but actually developing and not at all and buyers didn’t do anything with that opportunity and didn’t put in a new trend close on a Fridaythe time is ticking downJoe none of which is I say precludes and new intraday I last night there was a new I there’s two pieces of Unfinished Business above left outstanding Friday we added 25 56752 what had already been outstanding at 2557 and just testing them to within three or four ticks would have sufficed to at least neutralize their requirement that so much they’re still attractions and if the market is in its proximity or got out of its proximity and got back in its proximity that would be our objective for that leg and maybe some other objectives ever created while getting out of the proximity of that attraction we’re still in the proximity of 56 7557 haven’t broken under it but it was attacked overnight that if it’s a 657 objectives outstanding The Unfinished Business above was it overnight to three or four ticks standing by reversing down it is possible to reverse also we have it set up where there’s a new overnight Trend extreme or overnight probe of the entire sections High there’s not there’s no complexity so it doesn’t require and that’s why opening under maintaining it open to the oven in 15 minutes which you can see it as being influential exit 15 minutes get us out of the proximity to 2556 50s retest unfinished business for the day but least for the morning would be marginalized that would open the door to a rubber band effect down instead of this is not a very tight rubber band above the complexity above see the entire session the end of the road for the rally but still at least for the morning possibly for the day we would consider stay away from Friday doesn’t qualify as possibleso long and an unlikely if 52 5051 is not maintained through the oak and then we could be surprised by an influx of new buyers there’s earnings there’s there’s no. That there is economic data come out there’s no high-profile economic data coming out today very limited tomorrow you know we don’t have an iPhone C meeting for a couple weeks policy ECB comes out next Thursday there’s some room in their time we timing-wise since the market wanted to start the week and if it wants to break free from this consolidation time sensitive so we don’t see it this morning let alone by the clothes it’s probably not happening there’s Friday came back to that basically that was never likely to do anything more than once but stopped short of breaking lower starting to see patients overnight and extending this in completing that corrective bounce and the other is also maintaining Friday’s break are we still on for this to be a bottom prior to extending the Bells if this is last week’s recovery in the Friday the more aggressive it is near term the the less likely that it’s durable so play it patiently this would be the optimal bottoming patternand this is not bottoming pattern still need to get out of bed it’s more than just a correction because of one feature that is the gap left outstanding back to last Friday’s close apart from that there’s this cell signal that it triggered that was very productive albeit without showing or has so far it doesn’t change the signal that Friday I may have taken off the table because of the spike lower Pro buyerclose lower wasn’t a pivot reversal because it didn’t go well qualified under the open and the open but still the samesome of the same main principles we got a cell signal here that would be triggered on a closed under one 1830 and that would get every benefit of the doubt if triggered and take one 1970 off the table and still nothing changes here keep alive the overwhelming likely would have eventually and do you think sooner rather than later break under one 1760 and finally the end confirm breakout still has one lower close outstanding starting to distance itself and get out of its orbit and so with this fresh with this Spike down unemployment situation report reaction that was recovered that we see in the other patterns we should have the bond we see that precious metals there’s a gap outstanding and that’s the last opportunity to to reject this as just being a bounce gold as well we know that’s a bottom satisfied on the way down the question was how quickly it’s faster than I’d anticipated anyway and this is after Thursday opportunity to hold a relevant I went out trading the day around the around the weeks prior hi12 9650 and then of course on the news Friday the economic news it’s not a multi but if I break out of sorts just to get out of that rangeJeopardy by closing lower and a high-profile influential likely to affect totally organically and is now today to take the edge off from filling the Gap at least it’s 1770 except for more constructive which would have been preferable at the beginning of the near-term reaction to last Friday’s employment situation report recovery but may have been done anyway fulfilling signalsThursdayso quickly proved at Friday’s open that apparently had expended all available buying pressure to do that but it’s been vilified overnight by trending higher fresh eyes are minimum wage active here and that means that this could be the end of the road this could all be an effort just to fulfil his unfinished business above back to September 28th opening Gap up above prioritize that was reversed intraday that Gap above prioritize requires being filled it is essentially 5265 it’s more precisely 5265 but the point is that could develop into something more substantial to the upside but that is the attraction that’s what this leg is all about and then Natural Gas still standing on its way up 93 tested number to 304 NE pull back limit being tested back at 3 Friday’s closeonly going to be going to come back down to 289 so either way whether this is on its way back down to 283 along the way or maybe preventing anything lower than likely to touch 289 recording here any questions and I’ll see you there before the open good luck today

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