The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Fighting back up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s session was similar to Monday, until it wasn’t. Tuesday’s open had been preceded by a 12-point spike upon the CPI report, attacking Sunday night’s 2505.00 high. A post-open rally probed Sunday and Monday’s highs up to 2807.00. Like Monday, bias-up triggered but it wasn’t renewed above its 2802.00 bias-up target. And like Monday, the balance of the morning trended down under its bias-up signal, during a bias-up environment. Unlike Monday, the afternoon trended down, too, ultimately testing 2770.00 down to 2762.50. A late 11-point bounce was probing above 2770.00 into the close. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2794.75 bias-up signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late bounce had seemed tenuous before it even began. It was already retracing to 2770.00 into the close. the Globex open immediately retraced back down to Tuesday’s 2762.50 low. Bouncing back up to 2770.00 resolved back down to 2762.50 again. The next bounce to 2770.00 was more reserved, which has been rewarded by rallying up to 2782.00-2783.00. Consolidating there for 3 hours around what is this morning’s 2782.50 bias-up signal has yet to resolve either way.
If, then…
Last night’s bounce isn’t yet attacking Tuesday afternoon’s 2788.50 bias environment high to try forming a “session-long rally setup,” but pre-open econ reports could get it there. That’s not necessary to simply rally. The minimum upside reward is to retest Tuesday morning’s 2794.75 bias-up signal, if not also its Double Top with Monday’s high, and potentially resuming the prevailing trend that is targeting at least 2818.00… Meanwhile, a deeper dip to 2758.00 is still possible, and possible to recover from intraday. Gapping up as is currently indicated would allow room to expend selling pressure before it can gain traction. But that’s probably the only backing-and-filling this pullback can tolerate without reflecting a more bearish expiration sentiment.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2785.50 would be likely to trigger the 2781.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2777.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.